Ex Tenebris Tenebrae I

Can we know the what yet not know the why? When it comes to apparent space invasions, motivations may often hard to figure out- even after the fact.

Groundwork

Not all intelligences will be fascinated by the same things.

If we grant that there is a very high likelihood that there is extra-solar intelligent life out there. And if we tack on the codicil that within that probability there is a lesser, but still substantial, likelihood of there being both technical and space-faring species. We then can factor in the probabilities, whatever they are, that such species both dwell within reasonable sub-light travelling distance from our own solar system and are motivated to travel here, for whatever imponderable motives. Here's a partial list of such possible reasons aliens might come calling;

Resource acquisition? Loneliness? Sight-seeing for it's own sake? Curiosity about the patterned EM emissions from here? Ruthless galactic conquest ambitions? Amicable mutually beneficial trade seeking? Threat elimination of potential rival civilizations? Cultural exchange? Food? Perhaps seeking allies in some greater galactic disagreement? Rest while on a great migration? Altruistic love and caring?

The possible motives are endless and the above list presupposes minds operating somewhat like ours were we in the hypothetical visitors' place.

But intelligences can operate in many ways. A frog may be fascinated by flies. They have flies as one of their primary focii. If frogs had language similar to ours they might have 1500 adjectives for flies.

Were frogs spacefarers, they might seek out worlds with flies. Not necessarily to eat the latter, but to study them, to gain new adjectives and nouns and adverbs to their lexicon. Forget the resources, the loneliness factor, or galactic conquest motivations…. Just a simple fascination might suffice to launch a thousand ships to travel a centuries long journey.

In fact, if we claim to be intelligent ourselves, we should discard that whole list of motivations. It's just a misguided exercise in anthropomorphic reasoning. Alien intelligences may be very strange and if they come visiting our solar system what they do here and importantly why they do it may well nigh be incomprehensible. Perhaps we could make a good guess though.

The Visitors.

Possibly next year our space and earthborn sensors detect a largish fleet of objects moving into the solar system from the darkness of interstellar space. As they approach, with high velocity, the ecliptic of the outer gas giants they abruptly and collectively change course. We here on Earth make our first deductions. That what we just saw could not be accounted for by gravitational influences in that volume of space and that since the trajectory change was both abrupt and coordinated, it was consonant with intelligently maneuvered objects- whether manned or unmanned, we could have no idea yet- they could be programmed robotic probes. That they weren't ours we could be certain from the direction they came from.

We make our first conclusion: the solar system has intelligent visitors. We don't know yet what their intentions- are they coming to the inner solar system? To Earth? Unclear. We have to watch and wait.

As the weeks go by new data is collected. The ”fleet"breaks into multiple subgroups, each with different trajectories. Some are decelerating, some continuing with unchecked speed. We do some elementary calculations. All subgroups are on courses to take them to the vicinity of planets and their major satellite moons. The groups with unslaked velocity are aimed towards the inner system planets. Mars, Venus, Mercury and Earth look to be their targets. What are their intentions, their capabilities? We don't have enough data so we prudently continue to watch and wait and to step up the preparations begun soon after we had detected them entering the system.

The weeks go by and a pattern begins to emerge. Small groups of, let's call them “ships”, decelerate further and take up orbits around planets and their major satellites in the outer system. The ships are too far away to get a close look at but one of our flyby probes from ESA, the JUICE mission, already in Jovian space, and is now in the vicinity of Ganymede where 32 craft have taken up orbit. It relays back data..the “ships” are artificial- showing symmetries and reflectivity we would expect of manufactured metal objects. Whether they are manned or not, programmed robotic probes or not we still can't determine.

What are they doing? Our sensors cannot determine. Our Jovian probe that we have re-tasked and rerouted at great fuel expense, is put in a loiter mode near Ganymede to gather more data. What it sends us is clear as to the “what?” issues. The fleet is not sending landing elements, is not using electromagnetic sensors of its own such as radar or radar based mapping. Whatever it’s doing seem to rely on passive methods. It's not seemingly doing anything! Why then did it (and by extension its companions) travel so far? Bafflement.

Mars

Weeks later, a small group of the craft, 32 in number arrive, decelerate and take station around Mars. We have much better sensor coverage now and re-task some of our orbiting Mars instruments and near-Earth spaceborn imagers to scrutinize them. The craft are now definitely identified as artificial in origin, they resemble identical thin copper-green barrels 300 meters in length and 20 meters in diameter. The imaging, which has quite strong magnification reveals that they have no seams, even minute, no windows, no projections however small, from the barrels surfaces: no telemetry dishes or masts, no sign of any seam or port from which devices or passengers could emerge from the interiors. In short they are hermetically sealed barrels. We conclude they are less likely a ground invasion force and more likely robotic probes. An oddity is that they appear to travel lengthwise like a pencil rolling across a table, rather than edgewise like a canoe knifing through water. This is an oddity for we had always thought high-velocity interstellar space flights would be subject to ablation even from microscopic dust particles and that edgewise travel would minimize that risk. Why would the crafts' engineers and steerers ignore that problem? More bafflement. Meanwhile the Mars fleet has separated and we observe the ships form the 32 vertices of a triacontahedron around the red planet. Like at Ganymede, they seem to be inactive after taking up station. Human observers are frustrated-. Why don't the visitors do something? Actions are how we can guess intentions and they are giving us nothing to process. Are they taking snapshots like tourists? If so, why the zonohedron? A mathematician in an Indian advisory group points out that zonohedrons can accomplish closest packing goals. Are the aliens planning to transport our planets? For a while this idea and cousins are widely discussed as analysts try to deduce intentions from geometries. Signals are sent out to JUICE still at Ganymede. Confirm there are precisely 32 ships present there. Do they form a triacontahedron? Time elapses as the probe uses some of its precious fuel to maneuver and it then transmits back its answers. Yes, there are precisely 32 ships and yes, they have precisely formed the vertex points of that particular zonohedron. Again, we know the “what” but not the “why,” but it is assumed that these findings will be the same at all the planets and their respective moons the ships were dispatched to. Meanwhile 32 more ships are being tracked as they approach Earth from the outer system. Japan’s JAXA launches a reconfigured Hayabusa-3 meteor approach-land-assay craft. It is tasked to approach the oncoming fleet, take up station in a nonthreatening manner and accompany them toward Earth. It successfully intercepts and, in a complicated maneuver, then takes up a parallel course 1 km from the group. They do not react. It is then brought closer in 100 meter increments. The ships seemingly take no notice. Hayabusa-3 is then directed to land slowly on the surface of one of the outermost ships! Back on Earth space agencies around the world on the JAXA feed are white knuckled at this point. An anti-climax ensues: the landed-on ship deviates not an iota from its course or velocity; its companions also seem to take no notice of the hitchhiker. We were expecting either lethal force or signals from the fleet and tried to provoke them to the latter, but they fail to oblige us. Why did they not respond? We detach our probe and instruct it to return to Earth. It was designed for multiple use. The fleet sails on.

Earth

In a few weeks the ships arrive here. They too form a large triacontahedron around our planet. Some smaller governments start urging citizens to take shelter. Armed forces go on immediate alert. Silo doors open. Previously top secret systems are brought out of concealment and readied. Feverish 24/7 meetings are held in capitals all over the globe. But the craft remain silent- the first hour, the second hour, the first day.

Our distant loitering probe shows the Ganymede group is leaving the Jovian system. Its electronic eyes watch the departure and the trajectory of that fleet seems to take it into the inner system- Earth in fact. Alarmingly, the incoming data from all sensors shows all the alien flotillas, even the one at Mars are departing their distant stations, all courses pointing to Earth. Soon we will have hundreds of craft overhead. The wild transport speculation is discarded, but what are they up to? Meanwhile distant sensors report a second large fleet entering the solar system from the same direction, along the same path as did the first. In some quarters something akin to terror starts to manifest.

Very hard decisions have to be quickly made and in a near vacuum of information. The scientists caution a prudent wait and see approach, the military, chafing at the restrictions that had been placed on them, urge a massive preemptive strike at the ships currently in orbit- neutralizing the proximal danger and by observing their defensive capabilities be better informed how to deal with their brethren now fast approaching. An old dilemma posed in some science fiction movies. And in real history as well.

A tremendous amount rides on the decision.

[To be concluded in Part II]